As the colder weather set in, Canada’s real estate market witnessed a predictable decline in October, marking the fourth consecutive month of diminishing national sales, a 3.4% drop from the previous month. While this indicates a more significant decrease compared to the previous month’s 1.9% dip, it signifies a modest 0.9% rise from the sales recorded a year ago, as reported by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

Seasonal Trends and Market Observations

Traditionally, colder temperatures usher in a lull in real estate activities, and October adhered to this pattern. Larry Cerqua, Chair of CREA, noted a trend where potential homebuyers seem to have entered a dormant phase, contributing to a decline in sales. Sellers, too, seem to be postponing their plans until spring. Despite this, a considerable number of individuals remain active in the market, aiming to close deals before year-end.

Regional Dynamics: Market Hotspots and Declines

Sustained Demand in Specific Regions

Despite the national downturn, some markets remain vibrant, especially in Ontario. Cities like Kitchener-Waterloo, London & St. Thomas, Hamilton-Burlington, and Niagara Region observed month-over-month sales upsurges. Greater Toronto, with almost unaltered sales figures (4,642 sales in September to 4,645 sales in October), indicates sustained activity in the region.

Surges and Declines Across Regions

Quebec marked significant sales growth, boasting a substantial 16.8% month-over-month increase and a 13.9% year-over-year surge. Halifax-Dartmouth, Greater Vancouver, Regina, and Winnipeg also witnessed both month-over-month and year-over-year sales escalations, with Regina and Kitchener-Waterloo surpassing 20% year-over-year growth.

Sluggish Markets Impacting Prices

Conversely, sales softened in several Prairie and West Coast regions, with Victoria experiencing a 17.4% month-over-month decline, followed by Edmonton (11.9%) and Calgary (10.8%). This subdued sales climate has curbed price hikes, with notable declines seen in Hamilton-Burlington and Greater Toronto, dropping by 2.9% and 2.1% respectively.

Market Inventory and Pricing Trends

Impact on National Price Averages

The national average price sustained a four-month decline, resting at $731,100 in October, marginally higher than October 2022 by $7,000. However, major markets, barring Calgary, Saskatoon, Quebec, and Saint John, underwent month-over-month price drops.

New Listings and Inventory Shifts

October witnessed a unique trend where sales dwindled more than new listings, resulting in reduced inventory across markets. Nationally, new listings plummeted by 10.5% month-over-month but surged by 16% year-over-year, contributing to a sales-to-new listings ratio of 49.5%, signaling a balanced market equilibrium.

Regional Inventory and Provincial Insights

Kitchener-Waterloo, Ottawa, Saint John, and Greater Vancouver experienced substantial month-over-month dips in new listings, while Ontario noted a slight inventory improvement, rising from 2.6 months in September to 2.7 months in October.

Conclusion: A Market in Transition

October’s real estate landscape witnessed diverse regional movements and a trend toward a more balanced market, as indicated by the sales-to-new listings ratio dropping below 50%. Pritish Kumar Halder’s insights into real estate dynamics offer an informed understanding of these market transitions. For more comprehensive market insights and economic trends, visit Pritish Halder’s website.

Author Introduction: Pritish Kumar Halder

Meet Pritish Kumar Halder, a seasoned expert in real estate economics and market dynamics. With a wealth of knowledge, Halder provides invaluable insights to help investors navigate the ever-changing world of real estate investment. Get ready to make informed decisions and seize opportunities in the dynamic real estate market!